Netanyahu’s Election Test

Introduction

Israel’s 2026 general election is a crucial test for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Scheduled for 27 October 2026, the election comes amid the consequences of the Hamas attack of 7 October 2023, the devastating war in Gaza, regional tensions with Iran and Hezbollah, and growing demands for political accountability.

Netanyahu has survived numerous political crises throughout his long career. However, the failure to prevent the October 2023 attack has damaged his reputation as a leader capable of ensuring Israel’s security. His government also faces criticism over the humanitarian consequences of the Gaza war, domestic polarisation, and Israel’s international standing. 

The central question is whether Netanyahu can win another term or whether voters will demand a change of leadership. 

1. Can Netanyahu Win? 

Netanyahu’s Likud party retains a loyal conservative electorate and considerable political experience. His supporters argue that Israel needs a strong leader to confront regional threats and protect national security. Military operations against Hamas and other hostile groups may strengthen his appeal among voters who prioritise deterrence. 

Nevertheless, his coalition faces significant challenges. The security failure of 7 October, prolonged warfare, disagreements over military service and controversial judicial reforms have weakened confidence in the government. 

Israel’s proportional electoral system adds uncertainty. The Knesset has 120 seats, and a government generally requires support from at least 61 members. Winning the largest number of seats does not automatically guarantee the premiership. 

Former military chief Gadi Eisenkot and other opposition figures are attempting to turn public dissatisfaction into a parliamentary majority. However, the opposition remains divided over settlements, Palestinian statehood, religious policy and security strategy. 

Netanyahu may therefore remain competitive even if his party loses support. If the opposition cannot agree on a governing coalition, he could retain power through negotiations.

I assess that Netanyahu can win, but his victory is far from assured. The outcome will depend on voter turnout, smaller parties, the strength of the opposition and whether either political bloc can assemble a stable majority. 

2. The 7 October Security Failure 

On 7 October 2023, Hamas and other Palestinian armed groups launched a major attack on southern Israel. Approximately 1,200 people were killed in Israel, and around 250 were taken hostage, according to widely reported Israeli figures. 

The attack exposed serious weaknesses in intelligence assessment, military preparedness and national security arrangements. It also challenged Netanyahu’s longstanding claim that his leadership could effectively protect Israel from its enemies.

Critics argue that his governments underestimated Hamas and relied too heavily on deterrence and containment. Netanyahu has emphasised failures within the security establishment, but political responsibility cannot be separated from the government’s broader security policies. 

An independent investigation is necessary to determine what warnings were available, how officials assessed them and why preventive measures failed. 

3. Did Netanyahu Know About the Attack in Advance?

Reports alleging that Netanyahu received warnings about a possible Hamas attack have become a significant political controversy. 

Media accounts have described alleged warnings involving foreign officials, including United Arab Emirates President Mohamed bin Zayed and Egyptian intelligence officials. The reports raise questions about what information reached Israeli leaders before 7 October and how it was handled. 

Netanyahu has rejected the allegations as false. They remain disputed and require independent verification.

Three issues must be distinguished:

·       Whether Israeli intelligence or foreign officials issued warnings before the attack. 

·       Whether Netanyahu personally received specific and actionable information. 

·       Whether he knowingly ignored a warning that could have enabled authorities to prevent or reduce the attack. 

Evidence of general warnings does not automatically establish that Netanyahu knew the precise operational plans. Nor does the failure to prevent an attack prove deliberate complicity. 

However, if an independent investigation establishes that senior officials received actionable warnings and failed to respond appropriately, the political consequences could be severe. 

The controversy also raises questions about transparency. Netanyahu’s opposition to a fully empowered state commission of inquiry has attracted criticism from those demanding accountability.

The responsible conclusion is that the allegations deserve serious investigation but must not be presented as proven facts without sufficient evidence. 

4. Gaza: Humanitarian Disaster and Strategic Failure? 

The Gaza war is central to the election. Israel launched its military campaign after the October 2023 attack, aiming to defeat Hamas, recover hostages and prevent future assaults. 

The campaign caused extensive destruction and displacement. Palestinian civilians have faced severe shortages of food, medicine, shelter and essential services. Hospitals, schools, homes and other infrastructure have suffered substantial damage.

The war has raised a fundamental strategic question: can military force alone deliver lasting security? 

Israel has inflicted significant damage on Hamas’s military capabilities, but military success does not automatically create stable governance. Without a credible postwar arrangement, Gaza may remain vulnerable to renewed violence and political instability. 

Important questions remain: Who will govern Gaza? Who will provide security? How will reconstruction be funded? What role will Israel retain, and what political future will Palestinians have? 

Netanyahu faces conflicting domestic pressures. Far-right coalition partners oppose concessions they consider dangerous, while other Israelis question whether prolonged military operations have achieved their stated objectives. 

A settlement involving withdrawal or political concessions could threaten his coalition. Continuing the war without a credible political endgame could further damage public confidence. 

The humanitarian crisis must also be assessed independently of Israeli electoral politics. Palestinian civilians have rights to protection, humanitarian assistance and a political future. Any durable settlement must address civilian security, reconstruction, legitimate governance and Palestinian self-determination. 

5. Netanyahu’s Domestic Challenges

Military service 

Exemptions from compulsory military service for many ultra-Orthodox Jewish men have generated resentment among Israelis who believe the burden should be shared more equally. 

Netanyahu depends on religious parties that oppose changes to existing arrangements. Reform could weaken his coalition, while preserving exemptions may alienate other voters. 

Judicial reform 

The government’s efforts to change the relationship between the judiciary and elected officials have divided Israeli society. 

Supporters argue that reform would reduce excessive judicial influence. Opponents fear it would weaken judicial independence and democratic checks and balances. The resulting protests intensified political polarisation.

Corruption proceedings 

Netanyahu faces criminal corruption charges and continuing legal proceedings. He denies wrongdoing. These proceedings are separate from the allegations concerning the October 2023 attack. 

Nevertheless, they influence public perceptions of integrity and leadership. The election will indicate whether these controversies significantly weaken his support. 

Coalition instability 

Netanyahu’s far-right and religious partners have competing priorities. Some demand continued military pressure and tougher policies toward Palestinians, while others prioritise religious and community interests.

These alliances help him maintain parliamentary support but restrict his

freedom to negotiate ceasefires or accept diplomatic compromises. 

6. External Challenges

Iran and regional security

The confrontation with Iran has expanded Israel’s security challenges. Military escalation, missile attacks and regional conflicts may strengthen Netanyahu’s argument for strong leadership. 

However, prolonged confrontation can also increase casualties, economic pressure and uncertainty. Voters may question whether military action is producing lasting security or creating further risks. 

Relations with the United States 

The United States remains Israel’s most important international ally and a major provider of military and diplomatic support. 

Disagreements over Gaza, ceasefire arrangements and regional escalation can strain the relationship. Netanyahu must balance the demands of his coalition against the need to maintain American support. 

Refusing diplomatic compromises could weaken cooperation with Washington, while accepting concessions could threaten his domestic political alliances. 

International legal scrutiny 

In November 2024, the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and former defence minister Yoav Gallant over alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity. The warrants are not convictions. Israel disputes the Court’s jurisdiction and rejects the allegations. 

Separately, proceedings at the International Court of Justice concerning the Genocide Convention have intensified international scrutiny of Israel’s conduct. These proceedings are legally distinct from the ICC cases. 

International pressure could damage Israel’s diplomatic standing and reinforce domestic criticism of Netanyahu. However, some voters may respond to external criticism by supporting nationalist positions. 

The electoral impact will depend on whether voters prioritize international legitimacy, security policy or resistance to foreign pressure. 

7. The Opposition’s Opportunity 

Gadi Eisenkot, a former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, offers a potential alternative to Netanyahu. His military background may appeal to voters who demand security accountability without abandoning Israel’s defence priorities. 

The opposition argues that leadership change could restore public confidence and improve relations with international partners. 

However, replacing Netanyahu would not automatically resolve Israel’s security challenges or the Palestinian question. Opposition parties must present a credible plan for investigating the October 2023 failures, securing hostages, protecting civilians, addressing Gaza’s future and preventing renewed regional escalation. 

Their disagreements over settlements, Palestinian statehood and religious policy could complicate coalition formation. 

If the opposition remains divided, Netanyahu may benefit even if his popularity declines. 

8. What Will Decide the Election? 

Five factors are especially important: 

1.     Security accountability: Whether voters blame Netanyahu for the failure to prevent the Hamas attack. 

2.     Gaza: Whether the war produces a credible political settlement or continues without a clear endgame. 

3.     The economy: Whether military expenditure and prolonged conflict increase financial pressure on households. 

4.     Domestic divisions: Whether disputes over military service, religion and judicial reform weaken the governing coalition. 

5.     Opposition unity: Whether Netanyahu’s opponents can assemble a stable majority in the Knesset. 

The disputed advance-warning allegations could become particularly influential if new evidence emerges. The proportional electoral system also means that the performance of smaller parties may determine which bloc can form the government. 

Conclusion 

Benjamin Netanyahu enters the 2026 election with extensive political experience but a record burdened by the security failure of 7 October, the Gaza war, domestic polarization and international legal controversy.

His supporters regard him as an experienced leader capable of confronting regional threats. His critics argue that the security failures, humanitarian consequences and unresolved political questions demonstrate the need for a different approach.

Can Netanyahu win? Yes, but victory is uncertain. His loyal supporters and political experience remain important advantages, while the opposition’s divisions could help him retain power. Nevertheless, a fragmented coalition and continued public dissatisfaction may prevent him from securing a parliamentary majority.

The allegations concerning advance warnings must be investigated impartially rather than treated as established facts. Accountability requires evidence, transparency and an independent examination of political and security decisions. 

Ultimately, the election is about more than Netanyahu’s personal survival. It concerns Israel’s security strategy, democratic institutions, relations with Palestinians and international standing. 

Military power alone cannot guarantee a lasting peace. Sustainable security requires accountable leadership, civilian protection, credible governance in Gaza, regional diplomacy and a political framework that addresses the rights and security of both Israelis and Palestinians. 

References

1.     Reuters — Israel election date and political developments.
https://www.reuters.com/

2.     The Guardian — Reporting on the allegations concerning advance warnings before 7 October.
https://www.theguardian.com/world 

3.     Associated Press — Gaza ceasefire, humanitarian conditions and postwar challenges.
https://apnews.com/ 

4.     International Criminal Court — Official information on the arrest warrants concerning Netanyahu and Gallant.
https://www.icc-cpi.int/ 

5.     International Court of Justice — Proceedings concerning South Africa v. Israel.
https://www.icj-cij.org/case/192 

6.     Israel Democracy Institute — Israeli elections and political institutions.
https://en.idi.org.il/

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Israeli election analysis, Hamas attack 7 October 2023, Netanyahu advance warning allegations, Israel Gaza war, Gaza humanitarian crisis, Netanyahu corruption trial, International Criminal Court Israel, Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Middle East geopolitics.

 Can Benjamin Netanyahu win Israel’s 2026 election? An analysis of the Gaza war, the 7 October Hamas attack, disputed warnings, domestic political challenges and international pressure.